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Survey 4.2mm cumulative displacement, three independent measurements, Jan 2019 – May 2026.
Photograph Crack at the third buttress visible in 2021 imagery, absent in 2018.
\n \n
The movement is seasonal rather than progressive.
Contested
\n
For Displacement correlates with reservoir level at r = 0.81 across seven cycles.
Against The 2023 minimum did not return to the 2019 baseline, which a purely seasonal model does not predict.
\n \n
No immediate intervention is required.
Low confidence
\n
Basis Movement remains within the design tolerance stated in the 1974 drawings.
Caveat Those drawings assume a drawdown regime the reservoir has not operated under since 2011.
\n \n
"
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"html": "\nExhibit C Core samples taken at the third buttress, laid out in extraction order."
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"createdAt": "2026-08-29T18:34:32+09:00",
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\n\nRestricted · Panel only
Kilcarn Reservoir, structural assessment
Compiled 14 July · 6 claims · 2 disputed
\n\n
\n
The east wall has moved since 2019.
High confidence
\n
Survey 4.2mm cumulative displacement, three independent measurements, Jan 2019 – May 2026.
Photograph Crack at the third buttress visible in 2021 imagery, absent in 2018.
\n \n
The movement is seasonal rather than progressive.
Contested
\n
For Displacement correlates with reservoir level at r = 0.81 across seven cycles.
Against The 2023 minimum did not return to the 2019 baseline, which a purely seasonal model does not predict.
\n \n
No immediate intervention is required.
Low confidence
\n
Basis Movement remains within the design tolerance stated in the 1974 drawings.
Caveat Those drawings assume a drawdown regime the reservoir has not operated under since 2011.
\n \n
\n\nExhibit C Core samples taken at the third buttress, laid out in extraction order.\n\n\n
![\"Small](\"https://designlookbook.dev/assets/img/expert-lens-specimen.webp\")