Kilcarn Reservoir, structural assessment
Compiled 14 July · 6 claims · 2 disputed
The east wall has moved since 2019.
High confidence- Survey 4.2mm cumulative displacement, three independent measurements, Jan 2019 – May 2026.
- Photograph Crack at the third buttress visible in 2021 imagery, absent in 2018.
The movement is seasonal rather than progressive.
Contested- For Displacement correlates with reservoir level at r = 0.81 across seven cycles.
- Against The 2023 minimum did not return to the 2019 baseline, which a purely seasonal model does not predict.
No immediate intervention is required.
Low confidence- Basis Movement remains within the design tolerance stated in the 1974 drawings.
- Caveat Those drawings assume a drawdown regime the reservoir has not operated under since 2011.
